"The Uncertain Future of Burma"

In recent days, the military junta has been pushing forward
towards the referendum for the new constitution, which will be

held in May. There is no doubt that the referendum will play a

critical role for Burma if it is approved. Most importantly, the power

of the junta will become legitimate and subsequently, most countries

will have to recognize the power of the junta and start to consider
how to stop the recent economic sanctions and embargoes imposed

against Burma. In a way, stopping sanctions would help the majority of

Burmese as some levels of starvation would be resolved.

However, to get a "yes" for the referendum from the majority of the

public may be quite tricky for some reasons. First and most
importantly, the public has no more trust in the junta after seeing

broken promises for more than four decades. THE Public, in fact, has
expressed tremendous levels of disgust at the junta after seeing the
brutal crackdown on the recent monks' protest. But, there is still

hope for the junta for the referendum, as most Burmese do not
understand what "the constitution" means. Even if some of them know
how important a constitution is for a state, many of them have no idea

of the components of constitutions and what the results would
likely to be if it is voted into effect.Unfortunately,
National League for Democracy, the winner of the 1990 election and all other opposition parties cannot move fast enough to educate the public. Even worse, the public will probably be forced
to vote for the referendum, and/or the voted result will be tampered with.

Let's hope the referendum is voted into existence; yet, stopping the
sanctions and embargoes imposed by the States and the West are still
being debated in the international political arena; everyone

knows that the junta is playing a big political mind game to buy

themselves time. Therefore, even if the referendum vote is "yes",
there is doubt that the US and its allies will stop the sanctions.
Consequently, the politics of Burma will keep their ambiguity for
another four to five years unless some miracle happens.